There are always many factors as to why a hotly contested ballot measure ends up passing or failing. The 2020 election was unprecedented in many ways, which added uncertainty to why voters made the choices that they did. That being said, after fully analyzing election results, turnout data, and exit polling, here are three main factors that we believe led to Prop. 15’s defeat. 

1. Despite Biden’s win, the overall electorate in November was more Republican, whiter, and consisted of more homeowners than polls predicted. Even in California, Trump voters turned out in higher numbers than expected, especially in the rural areas. No one expected Prop. 15 to win in the Central Valley, Inland Empire, and other conservative pockets — we were hoping to lose 60-40. With the high conservative turnout, we lost many rural counties by a 70-30 margin. Despite their small populations, there are a lot of rural counties in California. When the margin is close, losing bigger in these areas makes a difference.

2. Not all Democrats that voted for Joe Biden voted for Prop. 15. The biggest drop off was among Democratic homeowners. Only 2 out of 3 people in this demographic voted ‘Yes’. Since we knew that Republicans were overwhelmingly against Prop. 15, while independents were split on the measure, we could not afford to lose 1 out of 3 Democratic homeowners.

3. A dominant story in 2020 was the economic uncertainty for individuals and small businesses brought about by the pandemic. The opposition was able to exploit people’s fear by pushing a clear message that Prop. 15 would increase the cost of living for everyone and hurt small businesses that were already struggling. This message resonated with enough persuadable voters who may have, under better economic circumstances, supported our measure.

Despite coming up short, our campaign turned Prop. 13 into a mainstream issue and dispelled the myth that it is an untouchable “third rail” of California politics. This is a victory and marks a clear political shift in California. Coming within 2% of winning showed that bringing real structural change to our property tax system is within reach. In addition, we convinced nearly every statewide elected official, hundreds of local elected officials and the leaders of the state legislature to endorse the ballot measure. Prior to our campaign, elected officials were reluctant to support this issue. Their support puts our movement in a much stronger position moving forward. 

Historically, when ballot measures aim to take on a controversial issue, most are not successful their first time. People have strong feelings about Prop. 13, so we’ve often compared this campaign to previous efforts to legalize same-sex marriage and recreational marijuana. California voters rejected both those ideas within the last 12 years, but today they are both rightly legal in our state. We believe that in a better economic environment we can be successful, especially because the need for funding for our schools and communities is now greater than ever. We remain committed to this fight and will be working to get Prop. 13 reform back on the ballot in the near future.